Expert: Putin may lose all of Ukraine, but portray it as a victory |ABC News

2022-09-17 16:28:16 By : Ms. Sherry Chen

Both in the Russian military blogs - which give an insight into Russian defense environments - but also on TV, Putin's army receives harsh criticism.On the battlefield, the army struggles mightily:Ukraine has recaptured large areas in Kharkiv, has an offensive still underway in Kherson, has threatened Crimea with rocket attacks this summer and is fighting on in Donbas, where the Russians have yet to take control.The question is whether Russia's army is collapsing, and what Putin will do about it.There have been warnings that Putin will threaten nuclear weapons - perhaps even use tactical nukes in Ukraine - or escalate the bombing of Ukrainian cities because he is backed into a corner.But Lieutenant-Colonel Palle Ydstebø, who has followed the Ukraine war closely as head teacher at the Staff School, outlines another alternative.- Putin can probably create the narrative that fits any situation, including a military defeat in Ukraine.Russian TV has already started presenting this "military special operation" as a defensive war against NATO and the West, where Ukraine is a proxy force for the West, Ydstebø tells NTB.- Then Russia can lose the whole of Ukraine, but present it as a victory in the defensive war because no foreign forces have set foot on Russian soil, he says.Nupi researcher Jakub Godzimirski says that there has been a shift in the Russian debate towards the fact that it is the West that is actually being fought against in Ukraine, but that those who believe that Russia can beat the West must get a reality check.The West is many times stronger, he points out.- This means that Putin can use it as a justification for choosing to withdraw from Ukraine, but I think it is very deeply rooted for Putin to bet on it, says Godzimirski to NTB.- If we think about what Putin can sit and consider as a solution for him, it is difficult to imagine that he can recognize that Russia has suffered a defeat in Ukraine.I think he will use even more brute force to hit Ukraine harder, and then this will continue for some time, says the researcher.He nevertheless says that there are more people around Putin who are now speaking out critically, either covertly or openly.- Perhaps there is a group around Putin who realizes that this is going to cost more than it tastes and either recommends that he give up or replaces him, says Godzimirski.At home in Russia, support for the war in Ukraine has fallen somewhat, but polls still show that barely half support it.The majority of Russians are apathetic, war researcher Ilmari Käihkö at the Aleksanteri Institute told VG recently.At the weekend, the Russians were served a message they rarely get on TV:- It is impossible to defeat the Ukrainian army.The message was delivered by former Duma member Boris Nadezhdin on the NTV TV channel, which is owned by Gazprom, in a debate.The TV channels are perhaps the most important tool in Putin's propaganda apparatus and this is where ordinary Russians get their information.- I was surprised that this was actually broadcast on TV, says chief researcher Tor Bukkvoll at the Defense Research Institute to NTB.He says there is a lot of logic in Ydstebø's analysis that Putin can portray a defeat in Ukraine as a victory.That it is an alluring thought that cannot be ruled out, but that it may be wishful thinking.- It is a captivating thought.I cannot rule it out.But I wonder if it is possible to sell such a version within Russia, if so it must be possible for Putin to say anything, says Bukkvoll.One thing that can speak for it is that you have already seen Putin stand on TV and say that Russia has not lost anything in the war in Ukraine - despite the many soldiers who have demonstrably fallen.Read also: Experts: Ukraine is very successful - and that is not something Putin can do- What has happened now is a turning point in the war, it is too early to say that it is the turning point itself, but it is certainly a turning point, says Bukkvoll about Ukraine's success in Kharkiv.Tormod Heier, who is a professor of military strategy, says that it is too early to say that the battle for Kharkiv has been won.- Partly because it is unclear how much the fighting has taken its toll on Ukrainian forces.But also because it is unclear whether the leadership in the Kremlin will start listening to the nationalists and the military, who have long wanted a greater mobilization to win the war, says Heier to NTB.However, he considers the battle for Kharkiv city won - and calls it an almost impregnable bastion just a few miles from the Russian border.- Everything now depends on what the leadership in the Kremlin is willing to sacrifice in terms of new human and material resources in Eastern Ukraine.Because there is little doubt that large parts of the Russian forces are weakened mentally and materially.Part of the problem is that the Russians are slowly but surely being worn down into a quagmire.In Europe's second largest country, against Europe's second largest defence, says Heier.He says Ukraine's success in Kharkiv and the rocket attacks against Crimea show that Ukraine can also threaten the Russians in the south and in Donbas.- The Ukrainian General Staff has followed the textbook and done a lot, says Heier.Bukkvoll says that the offensive in Kharkiv is more successful than even the Ukrainians imagined.It is important to maintain morale, but also support from the West, he says.- The second is that they have made it difficult for Russia to take the rest of Donetsk county.They were supposed to have an attack axis south from Izium to take the rest of Donetsk and now that possibility is gone, says Bukkvoll.He emphasizes that Ukraine can also fall into the trap and stretch its forces - as it appears that Russia has done.- But it seems as if they have not stopped in Kherson or Donbas.For now, they seem to have enough to attack on a wide front.We don't know how big the losses have been, but it could be a limiting factor, says Bukkvoll.- Ukraine has mobilized and has had forces for training for several months now, so they are able to fight more effectively than the Russians.They expose their forces to less risks than the Russians do, he says.In addition to Western arms support and intelligence, which has enabled Ukraine to take out Russian targets behind the front lines, another element is important in recent developments.According to American media, Ukraine has received help from the United States for so-called "war games" - where they play out how a military operation might take place.- It is probably the case that the Americans are simply more involved in the operational plans than they have been in the past, says Bukkvoll.- It is important to follow what Russia is now saying about the goals of the war.One thing that could be a decisive moment here is further development in fighting morale on the Russian side.If it just gets worse and worse, it can crumble.One can imagine that it will not be the Kremlin that decides the outcome, but the individual soldiers in the Russian defence, says Bukkvoll.A possible outcome could be that the soldiers simply give up.Few people know what Putin's next move will be then.Read also: Russia's Vladimir Putin is slaughtered: - 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